N.O. head count gains steam

Utility analysis finds 50,000 rise in year
Thursday, August 09, 2007
By Coleman Warner
Staff writer

New Orleans' population in July reached nearly 274,000, or 60 percent of the city's pre-Katrina count, reflecting a recent steady increase of about 1 percent a month, according to a new report based largely on utility records.

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The July count of 273,598 by Greg Rigamer of GCR & Associates points to a gain of 50,210, or 22 percent, in the past year.

The data -- which includes neighborhood-by-neighborhood rates of returning population -- shows two major trends, neither surprising. First, neighborhoods that took on less water in the flood are attracting population back much faster, and second, neighborhoods that didn't flood -- or flooded but have since regained a critical mass of population -- have sparked a resurgence in adjacent sections, even those badly flooded.

More isolated sections, meanwhile, have lagged.

"The repopulation has radiated from largely unaffected areas into blocks and neighborhoods connected to these areas," Rigamer's report says. "Accordingly, areas disconnected from largely recovered areas have been slow to regain their population. This condition is most acute in the Lower Ninth Ward and parts of Gentilly."

A neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown shows that many neighborhoods that had little or no flooding, especially Uptown, are close to pre-Katrina population levels.

Heavily flooded areas tend to have only a fraction of their population back -- but in many cases, the residential count has jumped dramatically in the past year.

The Pontchartrain Park enclave next to Southern University at New Orleans, and Lakeview, next to the 17th Street Canal, have recovered less than a third of their prestorm populations. But both have seen big increases in their residential counts in the past year. Pontchartrain Park's population increased from 416 to 800, while Lakeview's increased from 2,807 to 5,519.

Lacking the same utility data for Algiers that he used to analyze the east bank, Rigamer simply estimated counts for Algiers neighborhoods that matched figures from the 2000 census. Postal Service figures show there has been little change in residential patterns in Algiers, which didn't suffer flooding after Hurricane Katrina, he said.

The new analysis, which covers only Orleans Parish, pegs the population count at a lower level than that suggested by the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center, which said June postal delivery figures "suggest" a 66 percent restoration of the pre-Katrina number. That equates to roughly 300,000.

Rigamer said his firm's block-by-block research turned up instances of active postal accounts for homes that weren't occupied, but he conceded no data provides a perfect analysis.

"It's not an exact science, either on our part or their part," he said.

A New Orleans population count of 264,969 in July has been calculated by the demographic research firm ESRI, which also consults building permit statistics.

Rigamer said his research offers fresh backing for a broadly held notion: "The deeper the water, the more difficult it is for an area to come back."

Judged against 2000 census figures, residential areas with no flooding have seen 92 percent of their population restored, while those hit with 7 feet of water have 35 percent of their population count back and others with 11 feet of water have 21 percent back, the report shows.

East bank neighborhoods with the highest rates of repopulation, at 90 percent or higher, included the Garden District, the Vieux Carre, Touro, West Riverside in Uptown, Faubourg Marigny, the Irish Channel, East Carrollton, Black Pearl and the St. Thomas/Lower Garden District area, the analysis shows. The Garden District topped the list, at 98 percent.

Areas of the east bank with the lowest rates of return, at 30 percent or less, included St. Anthony in Gentilly, Pontchartrain Park, the Desire area, the Lower 9th Ward (including Holy Cross), Venetian Isles and a Read Boulevard section in eastern New Orleans, the Florida area and the St. Bernard section of Orleans.

With much of its housing stock wiped out by powerful storm surge, the Lower 9 had the east bank's lowest return rate, with just 7 percent of its 2000 count.

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Coleman Warner can be reached at cwarner@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3311.